Following up on the Black Swan references from last week and this week, one more quote for good measure.
“Our inability to predict in environments subjected to the Black Swan, coupled with a general lack of the awareness of this state of affairs, means that certain professionals, while believing they are experts, are in fact not. Based upon their empirical record, they do not know more about their subject matter than the general population, but they are much better at narrating – or, worse, at smoking you with complicated mathematical models. They are also more likely to wear a tie.”
– Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan